Kucinich = Obama?
So, the latest word out of Iowa is that Dennis Kucinich is telling his supporters to support Barack Obama on the second ballot in the Iowa Caucus tomorrow night.
so what?
Well, here's what.
Back in 2004, Kucinich made a deal with John Edwards -- and in precincts where Kucinich was not "viable," his supporters backed Edwards on the second vote. So, in a race that might have been close between John Kerry and Howard Dean, Edwards leap-frogged Dean, claimed second, and relegated Dean to "the scream."
Kucinich will probably get 1-2% of supporters on initial votes in most precincts. But if all of those supporters go to Obama on second votes, he could jump past Hillary and/or Edwards and into first place.
What about supporters of Biden, Dodd, and Richardson? Well, in all likelihood, those supporters will not go to Hillary. So, they are up for grabs among Edwards and Obama. I say look for Biden's people to go to Obama. Biden and Obama end up agreeing a lot in the debates, they seem to get along in the Senate, and Biden might get a VP spot out of supporting Obama. Plus, I would imagine Biden supporters have already decided NOT to support Hillary -- every knew she was running, and you could have signed-on earlier. Biden, Dodd, and Richardson people are mostly those who saw Hillary and wanted someone else. None of them are picking up "new" supporters -- but they have a solid core and should draw between 2 and 8 percent in most precincts.
If you combine Biden and Kucinich for Obama, you get an Obama victory.
The question now is: Can Obama turn his people out? Will he be in a position of strength after the first ballot? If he looks weak, supporters of other candidates may look to Edwards or Clinton.
It should be a wild night -- but it should also be the beginning of changing America.
So, the latest word out of Iowa is that Dennis Kucinich is telling his supporters to support Barack Obama on the second ballot in the Iowa Caucus tomorrow night.
so what?
Well, here's what.
Back in 2004, Kucinich made a deal with John Edwards -- and in precincts where Kucinich was not "viable," his supporters backed Edwards on the second vote. So, in a race that might have been close between John Kerry and Howard Dean, Edwards leap-frogged Dean, claimed second, and relegated Dean to "the scream."
Kucinich will probably get 1-2% of supporters on initial votes in most precincts. But if all of those supporters go to Obama on second votes, he could jump past Hillary and/or Edwards and into first place.
What about supporters of Biden, Dodd, and Richardson? Well, in all likelihood, those supporters will not go to Hillary. So, they are up for grabs among Edwards and Obama. I say look for Biden's people to go to Obama. Biden and Obama end up agreeing a lot in the debates, they seem to get along in the Senate, and Biden might get a VP spot out of supporting Obama. Plus, I would imagine Biden supporters have already decided NOT to support Hillary -- every knew she was running, and you could have signed-on earlier. Biden, Dodd, and Richardson people are mostly those who saw Hillary and wanted someone else. None of them are picking up "new" supporters -- but they have a solid core and should draw between 2 and 8 percent in most precincts.
If you combine Biden and Kucinich for Obama, you get an Obama victory.
The question now is: Can Obama turn his people out? Will he be in a position of strength after the first ballot? If he looks weak, supporters of other candidates may look to Edwards or Clinton.
It should be a wild night -- but it should also be the beginning of changing America.
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